USA vs Iran 
USA are ~74% favorites to beat Iran in their Group A opener at the 2026 World Cup. Below: the live Polymarket win/draw/win odds, a full match preview and a direct link to trade this market.
3:00 PM ET · SoFi Stadium, Los Angeles · Last updated: June 11, 2026
Market-implied win/draw/win probability and the equivalent decimal odds.
| Outcome | Probability | Decimal Odds | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
USA win Favorite | 74% |
1.35× | Trade |
| ⚖️ | Draw | 16% |
6.25× | Trade |
|
Iran win | 10% |
10.00× | Trade |
* Indicative Polymarket prices as of June 11, 2026 — not the exact live market price. Confirm the current price on Polymarket before trading.
The co-hosts begin in Los Angeles as heavy 74% favorites, but the fixture carries history — these sides last met at World Cups in 1998 and 2022, both tight, tense affairs. The USA's young, athletic group has home advantage, real depth and a high-tempo press that should overwhelm Iran for long spells. Iran, though, are disciplined, compact and awkward to break down, and have made a habit of frustrating bigger names on the biggest stage. The game likely hinges on whether the USA can find an early goal or get dragged into the kind of low-block grind Iran prefer. With England also lurking in Group A, dropping points in the opener would be costly for the hosts and pile pressure on the must-watch June 23 showdown. Expect waves of US pressure against a deep, well-organised Iranian block. If the hosts strike first, expect the price to drift quickly toward a comfortable American win.
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