Market-implied odds for the World Cup 2026 Golden Boot — awarded to the tournament's top goalscorer. Below: the top-10 contenders with decimal-odds equivalents and a link straight to the market.
Last updated: June 11, 2026 · Odds are indicative — confirm the live price on Polymarket.
Market-implied probability of winning the Golden Boot and the equivalent decimal odds.
| # | Player | Country | Probability | Decimal Odds | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kylian Mbappé Favorite | France | 14% |
7.14× | Trade | |
| 2 | Erling Haaland | Norway | 12% |
8.33× | Trade | |
| 3 | Harry Kane | England | 9% |
11.11× | Trade | |
| 4 | Lamine Yamal | Spain | 8% |
12.50× | Trade | |
| 5 | Vinícius Júnior | Brazil | 6% |
16.67× | Trade | |
| 6 | Julián Álvarez | Argentina | 5% |
20.00× | Trade | |
| 7 | Cristiano Ronaldo | Portugal | 5% |
20.00× | Trade | |
| 8 | Ousmane Dembélé | France | 4% |
25.00× | Trade | |
| 9 | Rodrygo | Brazil | 3% |
33.33× | Trade | |
| 10 | Lautaro Martínez | Argentina | 3% |
33.33× | Trade | |
| — | ⚽ | All other players | Field | ~31% |
— | View |
* Probabilities are market-implied prices from Polymarket's World Cup 2026 Top Scorer market and are indicative only. Top-scorer prices are volatile and swing sharply after big performances or eliminations — always confirm the live price on Polymarket before trading.
The Golden Boot is awarded to the player who scores the most goals across the entire tournament. If players finish level on goals, the tie is broken first by assists, then by fewest minutes played. On Polymarket, the "Top Scorer" market lets you trade on who wins it.
Open the Polymarket "World Cup 2026 Top Scorer" market, pick a player and buy shares at the current price. A player trading at 14 cents implies a 14% chance; each winning share pays $1.00 if that player finishes top scorer. You can sell any time before the market resolves. See our beginner's guide for the full walkthrough.
About once a week during the group stage and after each knockout round, because prices move sharply when a contender scores a hat-trick or gets knocked out. The date in the heading shows the last manual update — check Polymarket for the exact live price.